Finland's President Alexander Stubb has sparked debate with his bold vision for the European Union's future, advocating for a significant expansion that could see the bloc grow to 40 member states. In a recent speech, Stubb proposed including countries like Canada, Turkey, Norway, Iceland, and even the United Kingdom, which left the EU in 2020. This ambitious plan comes at a time when the EU is already pursuing its largest enlargement in a generation, with nine candidate countries eyeing entry. But what makes Stubb's proposal particularly intriguing is his emphasis on the strategic importance of size and scale for European geopolitical power.
A Vision for European Expansion
Stubb's proposal is a call to action, urging the EU to think big and seize the moment to project power on the global stage. He argues that the current window of opportunity for EU enlargement is narrow, as the war in Ukraine and potential changes in the U.S. administration could lead to a shift in focus. By expanding to 40 states, the EU could become a more formidable force, not only in Europe but also on the world stage.
The Strategic Importance of Size
One of the most intriguing aspects of Stubb's proposal is his emphasis on the strategic importance of size and scale. He believes that European strategic autonomy and geopolitical power are often based on these factors, and that the best European policy has been enlargement. By including countries like Canada, Turkey, and the UK, the EU could gain significant geopolitical leverage, especially in regions like the Western Balkans and the South Caucasus.
The Case for Canada
Stubb's suggestion that Canada could be the 28th state of the European Union is particularly fascinating. It raises the question of whether Canada could benefit from closer ties with Europe, and whether the EU could gain from Canada's economic and strategic advantages. However, it's worth noting that the U.S. has also expressed ambitions to annex Canada, which could complicate matters.
The Role of Turkey
Another interesting aspect of Stubb's proposal is his call for Turkey to be considered for EU membership. He argues that Turkey needs to be as close as possible from a security perspective, and that it should be included in the EU's expansion plans. This proposal is likely to be controversial, given Turkey's complex relationship with the EU and its recent human rights record.
The Western Balkans and Beyond
Stubb also highlights the importance of the Western Balkans and the South Caucasus in the EU's expansion plans. He questions what the EU should do with countries like Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. This region is currently a hot spot in Europe, and the EU's involvement could have significant implications for stability and security.
Iceland and Norway
Finally, Stubb mentions Iceland and Norway as potential candidates for EU membership. Iceland is holding a referendum on whether to begin EU accession talks, while Norway has twice rejected EU membership. These countries' relationships with the EU are complex, and their inclusion in the EU could have significant implications for the bloc's future.
Conclusion
President Alexander Stubb's proposal for a 40-state EU is a bold and ambitious vision. It raises important questions about the EU's future direction, the strategic importance of size and scale, and the role of countries like Canada, Turkey, and the UK. While the proposal is likely to be controversial, it highlights the need for the EU to think big and adapt to the changing global landscape.
